Reports that Khodorkovsky was granted parole immediately boosted the Russian stock market

Dmitry Ladygin, Kommersant, 23 August 2008

The first news from the courtroom where Khodorkovsky’s application for parole was being heard was published at 11.26 am (Moscow time). The Interfax news agency reported that the court had granted the ex-Yukos head’s request for release on parole. The reaction of stock market traders to the “breaking news” from Interfax was instantaneous. Many share prices rose by 2%. The rouble-denominated MICEX index added 1.3% while the dollar-denominated RTS index rose by 0.6%. Over a ten-minute period there were transactions worth almost 3 billion roubles on the MICEX stock market: the volume for such a brief period rarely exceeds 1 billion roubles on normal trading days.

Then a correction followed, Khodorkovsky’s release was denied and share prices fell. Alexei Dolgikh, vice-president of investment bank Troika Dialog, commented: “the first reaction to such news is to buy up the whole market.” He explained: “Khodorkovsky’s early release was positive news for the market since it would have been positively received by the world community.” After stocks soared they then fell back to slightly below the status quo: MICEX fell by 1.42% but RTS dropped by 1.21%.

Yevgeny Natarov, Gazeta.ru, 22 August 2008

A false start by Interfax, which announced that Mikhail Khodorkovsky was to be released on parole, showed how such a court decision could alter the atmosphere in society. Until the erroneous announcement was corrected liberal theorising took practical form; here at last was Medvedev’s version of the Khrushchev “thaw”. This change in the climate lasted precisely seven minutes, from 11.24 to 11.31 am (Moscow time).

There has often been discussion about what would happen when Khodorkovsky is released from prison. Even over such a short period one can understand how things might turn out. The situation went the opposite way to that which developed after his arrest in October 2003. Then life carried on as before, the stock market indices and the economy continued their record growth and those only interested in things material got richer and richer. However, that was already a different economy in a different country and they were not the philistines of earlier times. They were now living in a country where individuals were imprisoned for political reasons and the business of those convicted of such misdemeanours was confiscated. Even the meaning of economic growth changed. It became not the backbone of a flourishing society but reinforced the lack of freedom. The more money Russia and the state budget possessed, the easier and safer it was to imprison opponents. That is the paradox of post-revolutionary consolidation. Economic difficulties, on the contrary, became the awaited opportunity for easing the arbitrary rule of the regime and restoring to the country its lost foundations for normal development.

Just as Khodorkovsky’s arrest had once changed views about political life in Russia, so did the spectre of his release. The regime’s apparent change of mind, abandoning imprisonment and releasing Khodorkovsky, immediately widened the opportunity for discussion of Russian citizens, who felt they could say what needed to be done and how to do it. If people were no longer to be kept in prison for getting involved in politics, then anyone might exercise that right. Within five minutes this had ceased to be an extraordinary notion. The sensitive barometer of the stock markets reflected this lifting of the public mood better than any other. Over those seven minutes the blue chip shares on MICEX rose on average 2%: Lukoil 2%, Gazprom 2.4%, Surgutneftegaz 1.9%, Rosneft 1.55% and the Foreign Trade Bank (VTB) 1.6%.

I wonder, did those in authority also read the report of Khodorkovsky’s release? Perhaps they also could tell that there was nothing terrifying about it for them? It would have been a valuable experience.

However, at 11.32 am the true ruling of the court was being reported, that Khodorkovsky would not be released, and a shadow fell over our lives like that which descended during the final days of the presidential elections. The background became more discernible, where you do not note any small meanness because the entire backdrop of our existence is made up of such mean-spirited acts. So seven minutes are not such a brief span — for which we must thank Interfax.

“A steep scale”, Echo Moskvy radio station, 22 August 2008

A discussion of macro-economic circumstances and their influence on the Russian regions

Presenter (Alexei Dykhovichny): It’s 11.30 in Moscow. Good morning. Our guest today is Felix Eigel, analyst for Standard & Poors rating agency.

[...] Dykhovichny: I beg your pardon, but we must interrupt our programme for a moment. There’s some breaking news. The court in Chita has approved Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s application for release on parole. We shall have news of that in just five minutes’ time.

Felix, did you expect that result?

Eigel: We don’t base our scenarios on such events. All that’s important is the investment climate within Russia. This is an important turn of events since his imprisonment is holding back the volume of investments in Russia. They are much needed for modernising the economy, raising labour productivity and, in the last analysis, for increasing people’s incomes and personal budgets.

“Straight talk”, Echo Moskvy radio station, 23 August 2008

Alexei Venediktov (presenter & chief editor): Mikhail Tverskoi in Petersburg asks if we would comment on the story behind the “misinformation” about Khodorkovsky’s parole application. He says, “In our Echo Moskvy relay in Petersburg they switched to Moscow and Alexei Dykhovichny read the story. Seven minutes later we received other information.”

You’re right. At first we received information from Interfax that the court had approved Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s application for parole and Dykhovichny read out the news during a live broadcast. And he was quite right to do so. Six minutes later the correction was wired through and our correspondent in Chita Irina Vorobyova said the report was wrong. Evidently the Interfax correspondent, or a reporter with another agency, misheard something. It happens. He tried to send the news as quickly as he could. Then we issued a correction.